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Preparing for project’s Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis is like painting a wall. The wall preparation takes the longest before the final paint coat is applied. The last layer becomes as essential as sanding debris and covering all holes with joint compounds. Up to 80 percent of the Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis (SQRA) effort is preparing the risk model. The remaining twenty percent (20%) is on the proper use of the tool, e.g., OPRA, previously called PertMaster, Deltek Acumen Risk, and others. If the schedule is not of good quality and not modeled correctly, then the 80% effort amounted to nothing. The resulting assessment can become unreliable if ...
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Many of us are blessed with many things in our life that we seldom appreciate. Sometimes they are huge and other times they are small. Regardless of magnitude, Thanksgiving Day is the time of the year that serves well as a reminder to be thankful. Appreciate what you come to have and even what you’ve lost. In risk-based management, both embody change that can lead to new opportunities. Losing is not always to be considered a threat. It might surprisingly come out as a gain. Know that life is full of uncertainty. Embrace change and be part of it!  “Thanksgiving Day is a national holiday celebrated in Canada, the United States, some of the Caribbean islands, ...
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A photo-grab of the primary critical path of the schedule being analyzed before the start of the SQRA is shown below. This is the project’s primary critical path generated from Primavera that can be used in contrast to the quantified criticality resulting from running a schedule quantitative risk analysis. The latter provides a semblance of dynamic criticality brought about by multiple simulation and iteration. I call the criticality result of schedule quantitative risk analysis (SQRA) as dynamic critical path (criticality index). The critical paths from SQRA are in reality, more dynamic in nature than static. Multiple iteration demonstrates the changes ...
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The talk of going back to work has been heating up in the last three months prior to August 2021. While we are all hoping to get back on track to pre-pandemic time, it is prudent to observe first what will happen for the rest of the year before declaring any form of normalcy in the get-back-to work order. So the timeframe from now to the First Quarter of 2022 is the acid test. It will show where we are in this COVID19 situation. It looks like many Canadians are still in the category of most at risk despite having been vaccinated, so they'd probably like to see that there will be no resurgence of the pandemic in the coming winter months like what happened in the ...
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Caption Origin of this poster: Mr. CutCorners wants his Artist to deliver something cheaper right away and gave him a deadline. Do you think CutCorners got what he was looking for? Origin of this poster: Mr. CutCorners wants his Artist to deliver something cheaper right away and gave him a deadline. Do you think CutCorners got what he was looking for? "In a newly published study, we found that employees who “cut corners” tend to be morally compromised, low in conscientiousness, self-focused and impulsive. This in addition to the potential for corner-cutting to increase risks... Corner-cutting is generally considered an undesirable ...
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The correctness, accuracy, completeness, and usefulness of a Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis (SQRA) depends heavily on the quality of planning data used for input or, plainly, the quality of the project schedule. A good quality schedule brings about good, and reliable quantitative results. Good quality begets good project management that begets good results. The consequences of a poor-quality schedule are practically endless. If unaddressed, the schedule remains counter-intuitive, disconnected, or disjointed, resulting in poor project control. Low quality produces a flawed schedule not fit for quantitative risk analysis, producing incorrect probability ...
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Let no one ever forget… “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed, by their Creator, with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.” Source: Thomas Jefferson, 1776.The Declaration of Independence. July 4, 1776 #pmspnewsletter   #pmspgreeting   #pmspblog
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Some months back, I heard back from a prospective client that they were still waiting for feedback from their core team before deciding to acquire the Acumen Fuse toolset. They were presently contracting out the Schedule Analysis to a third-party contractor. A good business case study is part of the development process to a possible acquisition of anything that can grow and improve existing project investments. I went through the same rudiments while working in the Central Team of another big firm. We ended purchasing five licenses of Deltek Acumen Fuse, a decision that proved to be wise due to the following (but not limited to): 1) Ownership, self-reliance, ...
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KATHAKO and PM Solution Pro is Celebrating Easter with all of you! Easter, also called Resurrection Day and Pascha, is a Christian holiday celebrating Jesus Christ returning from the dead. Christians believe that it is the holiest day of the year. Some people who are not Christians celebrate it also as a cultural holiday. The New Testament states that on Sunday after Jesus was killed, his body was no longer in the tomb where he was laid. Later, Jesus is said to have appeared to over 500 people and preached to them. The New Testament teaches that the resurrection of Jesus is what Christianity is based on. The resurrection made people believe that Jesus was ...
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Integrated assessment of a schedule is a must! Proper schedule risk quantification requires an integration that has all the needed elements under consideration. All activities have to be part of the same deterministic network during the calculation, with all essential and correct relationships preserved. How can you tell that a schedule lacks integration? One significant indicator that a schedule lacks integration is the presence of external links. If you find an external link, it signifies a separate network of activities lying outside the realm of your schedule risk model. As much as possible, all the interconnected schedules are present or represented ...
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This might interest some of you, an opportunity to learn something new forwarded to us by our Burns and McDonnell friend and colleague Ahsan Upal.   Summary:  As trends toward decarbonization and renewable generation gain steam, interest in hydrogen has reemerged as a potentially key technology in the evolution of the power industry. Join our webinar as Megan Reusser, Nick Lumley and Jane Newman-Ford discuss the many facets of hydrogen, as well as prospective end uses, market opportunities and technical considerations. Click the image below to register! BOOKS AUTHORED BY RUFRAN FRAGO Risk-based Management in the World of Threats ...
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Everyone in the risk management community knows what schedule quantitative risk analysis is. It is what most of us in project management call the traditional method of quantification. One day, I decided to ask a group of subject matter experts about this. "What do you think is the best approach to duration ranging?" I have done and facilitated so many three-point activity duration estimating sessions that I have already lost count. Regardless of how many, though, I still ask myself, "Am I doing the three-point estimate correctly?" Professional Opinion There is a growing opinion from some risk management professionals that the "duration range" should only ...
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Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the name given to a method of analysis that runs iterations to produce a statistical result. The process is opposed to deriving a function that would give the required result (often an almost impossible task in anything but the simplest of plans). Latin Hypercube (LH) simulation is a stratified sampling method that gives outcomes nearer the input distribution theoretical values with less iteration. The two simulations do it differently, but many risk analysts call all simulations Monte Carlo. It is not a big deal to those who are not profoundly intertwined with the risk analysis process. Some risk professionals will call your ...
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It is my prayer that many of you will be spending some great time with your respective close families and friends. In all the upcoming festive gatherings, make sure you don’t forget the grandparents who started you all! They are very much a part of each family unit that came to be. They’d be thrilled with even just a call from their kids and of course, from their loveable, innocent and amazing grandchildren. In this challenging time of the pandemic, togetherness can be expressed in many ways. To those belonging in the same household, it's an opportunity to savor the closeness that many can't enjoy. Enjoy a few days with the people you truly care about. ...
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Probability is a measure of uncertainty of risk consequence. If the impact is zero, then the logical consideration is gone. There is no risk because it will not happen.  If the probability is above zero, then the consequence might happen—the greater the possibility, the greater the chance of the subject consequence from happening. One way to visualize risks is to look at the picture of a situation or the situation itself. Hold it in front of you and imagine that you are there. If you are in there, ask yourself why? What is your purpose for being there? Are you there on behalf of an enterprise? Are you there to help or to document what is happening? What ...
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How to Visualize Risk

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Mark is boarding a plane and heard one passenger in front remarked in jest that the chance of the aircraft reaching its destination is 50%. It is just a joke to that person but not to him because he is a serious risk practitioner. The statement demonstrates the probability component of risk. Probability is the certainty or uncertainty of something happening. Since risk is widely known to be the effect of uncertainty on an objective, the objective of reaching the destination is only 50% certain. Another way of looking at it is by saying it is 50% uncertain. What can be some of the possible consequences a passenger might be thinking? A new passenger ...
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Not so long ago, two Project Controls Directors of a client company debated how cumbersome it was to update an extensive construction schedule. One of the directors believed that updating  need not be done  by their Senior Planning & Scheduling Specialist but by someone their junior. With a smirk on his face, Tommy Itsimple (not his real name) said, "Believe me, construction schedules can be updated by an encoder. Easy! Our planning and scheduling specialists spend seventy to eighty percent or higher of their time updating. In a sense, the company pays them too much. They were just encoding information provided by our contractors! No skills needed for ...
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Let’s stop for a bit today from whatever we are doing and think about this special day. The awesome pride and inspiration our heroes brought to the present generation strengthens the resolve of all freedom-loving people of the world. Nations owe them this day of remembrance. We must reflect on their sacrifices in their fight to preserve liberty and justice for all. We are all fortunate recipients of their ultimate gift, freedom. Without them, we won’t be here to pursue our professions. There wouldn’t be an AACE community, no avenue to promote best practices, and healthy sharing of knowledge. God bless their souls! There are those who never received recognition, ...
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Schedule quantitative risk analysis (SQRA) is a process of calculating the overall probability or chance of completing a project on time and on budget. Quantification uses various approaches and methods. Duration ranging is the most popular one, and often referred to as the “traditional method” of schedule risk analysis. It is simple and easy to understand. New and upcoming project managers, leaders, planners and schedulers would love to wrap their heads around this special risk-based knowledge area and will enjoy reading this book. I want the readers to confidently embark on schedule quantitative risk analysis without apprehension, with the absence ...
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“Risk, What are You? The Risk Management Book, Children’s Book for all Professionals.” Written for children of reading age with some guidance, young leaders, future managers and all professionals. Hope you’d all like the video and subscribe to be notified for related development and more to come. See the Youtube Book Video Introduction below to learn more. It is available in Amazon and various international outlets. Thanks all! Rufran C. Frago P. Eng., PMP, CCP, PMI-RMP Author & Illustrator About the Author Rufran C. Frago is the Founder of  PM Solution Pro , a Calgary  consulting ,  product , and  training  services firm focusing on project ...
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