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Everyone in the risk management community knows what schedule quantitative risk analysis is. It is what most of us in project management call the traditional method of quantification. One day, I decided to ask a group of subject matter experts about this. "What do you think is the best approach to duration ranging?" I have done and facilitated so many three-point activity duration estimating sessions that I have already lost count. Regardless of how many, though, I still ask myself, "Am I doing the three-point estimate correctly?" Professional Opinion There is a growing opinion from some risk management professionals that the "duration range" should ...
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Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is the name given to a method of analysis that runs iterations to produce a statistical result. The process is opposed to deriving a function that would give the required result (often an almost impossible task in anything but the simplest of plans). Latin Hypercube (LH) simulation is a stratified sampling method that gives outcomes nearer the input distribution theoretical values with less iteration. The two simulations do it differently, but many risk analysts call all simulations Monte Carlo. It is not a big deal to those who are not profoundly intertwined with the risk analysis process. Some risk professionals will call ...
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It is my prayer that many of you will be spending some great time with your respective close families and friends. In all the upcoming festive gatherings, make sure you don’t forget the grandparents who started you all! They are very much a part of each family unit that came to be. They’d be thrilled with even just a call from their kids and of course, from their loveable, innocent and amazing grandchildren. In this challenging time of the pandemic, togetherness can be expressed in many ways. To those belonging in the same household, it's an opportunity to savor the closeness that many can't enjoy. Enjoy a few days with the people you truly care about. ...
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Probability is a measure of uncertainty of risk consequence. If the impact is zero, then the logical consideration is gone. There is no risk because it will not happen.  If the probability is above zero, then the consequence might happen—the greater the possibility, the greater the chance of the subject consequence from happening. One way to visualize risks is to look at the picture of a situation or the situation itself. Hold it in front of you and imagine that you are there. If you are in there, ask yourself why? What is your purpose for being there? Are you there on behalf of an enterprise? Are you there to help or to document what is happening? What ...
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How to Visualize Risk

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Mark is boarding a plane and heard one passenger in front remarked in jest that the chance of the aircraft reaching its destination is 50%. It is just a joke to that person but not to him because he is a serious risk practitioner. The statement demonstrates the probability component of risk. Probability is the certainty or uncertainty of something happening. Since risk is widely known to be the effect of uncertainty on an objective, the objective of reaching the destination is only 50% certain. Another way of looking at it is by saying it is 50% uncertain. What can be some of the possible consequences a passenger might be thinking? A new passenger ...
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Not so long ago, two Project Controls Directors of a client company debated how cumbersome it was to update an extensive construction schedule. One of the directors believed that updating  need not be done  by their Senior Planning & Scheduling Specialist but by someone their junior. With a smirk on his face, Tommy Itsimple (not his real name) said, "Believe me, construction schedules can be updated by an encoder. Easy! Our planning and scheduling specialists spend seventy to eighty percent or higher of their time updating. In a sense, the company pays them too much. They were just encoding information provided by our contractors! No skills ...
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Let’s stop for a bit today from whatever we are doing and think about this special day. The awesome pride and inspiration our heroes brought to the present generation strengthens the resolve of all freedom-loving people of the world. Nations owe them this day of remembrance. We must reflect on their sacrifices in their fight to preserve liberty and justice for all. We are all fortunate recipients of their ultimate gift, freedom. Without them, we won’t be here to pursue our professions. There wouldn’t be an AACE community, no avenue to promote best practices, and healthy sharing of knowledge. God bless their souls! There are those who never received recognition, ...
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Schedule quantitative risk analysis (SQRA) is a process of calculating the overall probability or chance of completing a project on time and on budget. Quantification uses various approaches and methods. Duration ranging is the most popular one, and often referred to as the “traditional method” of schedule risk analysis. It is simple and easy to understand. New and upcoming project managers, leaders, planners and schedulers would love to wrap their heads around this special risk-based knowledge area and will enjoy reading this book. I want the readers to confidently embark on schedule quantitative risk analysis without apprehension, with the ...
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“Risk, What are You? The Risk Management Book, Children’s Book for all Professionals.” Written for children of reading age with some guidance, young leaders, future managers and all professionals. Hope you’d all like the video and subscribe to be notified for related development and more to come. See the Youtube Book Video Introduction below to learn more. It is available in Amazon and various international outlets. Thanks all! Rufran C. Frago P. Eng., PMP, CCP, PMI-RMP Author & Illustrator About the Author Rufran C. Frago is the Founder of  PM Solution Pro , a Calgary  consulting ,  product , and  training  services firm focusing ...
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Communicating with Executive Leaders and Stakeholders Although each organization is different, there is one commonality no matter the size or industry: project success is closely tied to business success. While program control staff maintains project plans, assesses risk, and helps assure on-time delivery, it is vital that executive management receive project information necessary to support critical business decisions. Are you providing the right details at the right time? Join Deltek experts Tom Polen, Advanced Solution Engineer and Dan Demangos, Manager, Solution Engineers as they illustrates how the deliver concise project execution and forecast ...
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PM SOLUTION PRO  entered into a strategic partnership with SEAVUS, a world-class software development and consulting company in July this year. SEAVUS has 15 offices supporting 4,000 clients in eight (8) countries. The partnership is designed to help further expand the footprint of the Seavus’ Schedule Reader/Schedule Cleaner toolset and to increase the value of the project and business services we provide to our clients.  Our business alliance creates an opportunity of adding “Schedule Reader and Schedule Cleaner” software solution to PM solution Pro’s consulting, technical, training and learning portfolios.  LET’S TALK ABOUT SCHEDULEREADER… Whether ...
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Many of us are blessed with many things in our life that we seldom appreciate. Sometimes they are huge and other times they are small. Regardless of magnitude, Thanksgiving Day is the time of the year that serves well as a reminder to be thankful. Appreciate what you come to have and even what you’ve lost. In risk-based management, both embody change that can lead to new opportunities. Losing is not always to be considered a threat. It might surprisingly come out as a gain. Know that life is full of uncertainty. Embrace change and be part of it!  “Thanksgiving Day  is a national  holiday  celebrated in  Canada , the  United States , some of the  Caribbean ...
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Today would be a great day to register for our upcoming webinar: Achieving Total Cost Management with Ecosys! This is a free opportunity for members and non-members. AACE’s Total Cost Management (TCM) framework is a comprehensive body of work with principles, guidelines and approaches for successful project delivery. In this webinar, we showcase how the concepts of TCM align with the EcoSys Enterprise Performance (EPP) Solution Breakdown Structures (SBS) to provide a solution capable of improving project performance and supporting organizational goals and objectives. We’ll discuss: AACE Total Cost Management (TCM) Framework; Key process areas and ...
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#schedulequality #pmspblogs #rufranfrago #rbms #planningandscheduling #pmsolutionpro #schedulemanagement #riskmanagement Source: Frago, Rufran (2015).Plan to Schedule, Schedule to Plan.ISBN 978-0-9947608-2-1.Canada   About the Author Rufran C. Frago is the Founder of  PM Solution Pro , a Calgary  consulting ,  product , and  training  services firm focusing on project and business management solutions. He is passionate providing advice, mentorship, education and training through consultation, collaboration, and what he uniquely calls, student-led training. BOOKS AUTHORED BY RUFRAN FRAGO Risk-based Management ...
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Good schedule quality helps projects come up with good schedule risk quantification. The quality of input data drives the correctness, accuracy, completeness, and usefulness of the schedule. The rule is simple, garbage in-garbage out or GIGO. Quality of system output depends on the quality of system input. In this regard, Schedule Quality Management is a must. Source: Frago, R.2015.Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective.ISBN 978-0-9947608-0-7.Canada #rbms #pmsolutionpro #pmsp #planningandscheduling #schedulequality #qualitymanagement #rufranfrago #pmspblogs ...
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A colleague in the oil and gas industry was trying to be funny that day and was delivering another one of his patented jokes. I do not usually take notice because I find myself always busy with work but the story resonated differently so I came closer, and to his surprise, I started taking notes. This bull story somehow relates to business strategy and acumen. I want to remember it and now I am sharing it to you. “Two bulls were walking side by side one day. The young one was full of enthusiasm. The older one, who was wiser, looked at other bull and shook its head. The two suddenly came across a herd of cows. The young bull said, "Let's charge down this ...
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Happy Labour Day 2020!

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Labour Day in Canada is celebrated on the first Monday of September and it is a federal statutory holiday. It is a legal holiday also celebrated on the first Monday in September in the United States, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Canal Zone, and the Virgin Islands. Labor Day is a day set aside to pay tribute to working men and women. It has been celebrated as a national holiday in both the United States and Canada since 1894. #laborday #happylaborday #pmsp #pmsolutionpro #rufranfrago #pmspblogs
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Risk Relativity

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For a thief, a good security system is a threat. To a security guard, that same system is an opportunity to lessen the risk of robbery and to increase the chance of catching the thieves. A person’s perspective depends on which side of the fence they are sitting on. With that in mind, a risk can be a threat or an opportunity. It is relative from a point of view. Your business sees a threat and your competitor sees an opportunity. It is as simple as that. Each individual player within the risk universe will see things a bit differently compared to the next person, with some people interpreting things in exactly the opposite fashion. In each case, the person ...
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PM SOLUTION PRO is excited to announce its recent strategic partnership with SEAVUS, a world-class software development and consulting company with 15 offices supporting 4,000 clients in eight (8) countries. The partnership is designed to further expand the footprint of the Seavus’ Schedule Reader/Schedule Cleaner toolset and to increase the value of the project and business services we provide to our clients.  Our business alliance creates an opportunity of adding “Schedule Reader and Schedule Cleaner” software solution to PM solution Pro’s consulting, technical and learning portfolios. ScheduleReaderTM is a standalone software solution that dynamically ...
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Porque los KPI en Proyectos son tan importantes En este enfoque, es fundamental establecer un conjunto estándar de Indicadores clave de performance (KPI) en toda la organización. El propósito detrás del establecimiento de estas métricas es configurar un método para medir constantemente lo que se ha acordado como importante para mostrar los éxitos del proyecto (y de la organización). Las plataformas de la solución Enterprise Project Performance (EPP) facilitan este enfoque al integrar procesos que abarcan el ciclo de vida completo de los proyectos, que incluyen: Gestión de la cartera de proyectos (Proyectos): le ayuda a priorizar, seleccionar, alinear ...
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