'How much my project will really cost?' is the biggest question in every PM's mind at the time of project Feasibility stage, even when contracts are established. Every project is riddled with risks that cost time & more importantly money. Traditionally at every stage the Cost estimators add 'Contingency' to a project's Estimate using standard % of the base Cost (depending on the stage of the project) using age old knowledge and practice. The presentation will talk about, how we can make a much better prediction, more mathematically analysed, by using the Risks or uncertainties at that stage of the project. Contingencies are added to the project estimate, to deal with the uncertainties and the Webinar will talk about how the Risks can be quantified, the impacts quantified and than analysed statistically using Monte Carlo principles (using standard software available in the market, to predict a much better number which is built from Risks and statistical methods. One additional feature of the Webinar is the discussion around the 'Schedule Contingency'. Again traditionally a project has a Critical path that determines the total duration and by definition, Critical path is the Longest Duration to complete sequenced activities. Very rarely Schedule Contingency is added to the Critical Path (other than weather related Calendars). The project risks also result in extension of time and the same Monte Carlo method of quantified risk analysis can be used to determine a contingency period that should be added to the Critical path, to get a duration that has better probability of achieving a successful completion.
The Webinar will discuss calculation of both Time & Cost Contingencies based on the Risks.