Dear AACE Seattle Section Members and Guests,
Please join us for our next AACE Seattle Section in-person meeting on Thursday, September 17, 2026, from 5:00 PM to 8:00 PM, featuring a presentation by Joe O'Carroll, PE, a recognized leader in infrastructure risk management and quantitative risk analysis.
Selecting the Right Risk Analysis Method from Probability-Impact Matrices to FTA Beta Factor Modeling
Monte Carlo simulation has become the industry standard for quantifying cost and schedule uncertainty—but is it always the right tool for the job?
This presentation explores the strengths and limitations of quantitative risk analysis methods across the project lifecycle, from simple Probability-Impact matrices and quantified risk registers to Monte Carlo simulation and the Federal Transit Administration's Beta Factor modeling approach.
Attendees will learn:
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When each risk analysis method provides the greatest value
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The project maturity and complexity levels that justify different approaches
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Best practices for developing appropriate contingency budgets and schedules
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How risk analysis supports informed decision-making and successful project delivery
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How risk results should be interpreted and applied by:
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Cost estimators
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Schedulers
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Project managers
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Project sponsors
Rather than focusing solely on modeling techniques, this session examines how risk analysis can be used as a practical tool to improve project planning, funding strategies, and project outcomes.
About the Speaker:
Joe O'Carroll has more than 40 years of experience in infrastructure delivery, risk management, and quantitative risk analysis for major transit, transportation, and tunneling projects throughout North America. Over the course of his career, Joe has led cost and schedule risk assessments for projects ranging from early planning studies to federally funded megaprojects requiring Monte Carlo simulation and FTA OP-40/Beta Factor risk analysis.
He has supported agencies including:
Sound Transit
Seattle Public Utilities
Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT)
Numerous other public agencies and transportation authorities
Joe is widely respected for helping organizations develop risk-informed budgets, schedules, and contingency strategies, and for bringing a practical, decision-focused perspective on how risk analysis can improve project planning, funding, and delivery outcomes.
📅 Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
🕠 Time: 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
📍 Location: Hotel Andra, Seattle [Free parking at the Amazon Doppler Garage]
PROMO Code: EARLYBIRD2026 for $10.00 off your order, but act fast because slots are limited!
Earn 1.0 PDUs and/or .1 CEUs by attending!
We encourage project controls professionals, cost engineers, estimators, schedulers, risk practitioners, and project managers to attend what promises to be an engaging and insightful discussion.
We look forward to seeing you there!