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Book Signing Event at El Torito, Dana Point, California. See you there!

By Rufran C Frago posted 05-21-2019 11:32 PM

  

Click the image or the link below for more details. Check what the books are all about.


Book-signing at El Torito, Dana Point, California, USA



My first book, “Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective” took three years to write but worth the effort. It provides new and additional knowledge to project management practitioners, risk management specialists, and for undergraduate students taking up courses in Risk Management.


The purpose of life is managing risk. It is in front of all of us and in the very fabric of our daily lives. Risk management is the only thing we do for a living. This is the reason why we go to work every day. If we still do not realize this intriguing conclusion then I guess, we are all familiar with risks like close friends but we still do not know them well enough. Grab a copy, read and I will show you how to better appreciate the word risk, threat, opportunity, and the concept of risk-based management in the simplest terms.



The sectional contents offer practical and common sense approach surrounding risk-based thinking to managers, directors, aspiring industry professionals, and newcomers. The material is especially design to start with the foundational principles and gradually bringing the reader to deeper topics using simple terminologies in conversational style. Risk-based management is a serious approach and a philosophy that takes risk as major consideration while managing any endeavor throughout its life cycle.


Risk-based management increases the probability of success in achieving organizational and individual objectives. It simply means that risk should be the main contemplation by anyone while keeping an eye to achieving objectives. Risk is a primary concern in pursuit of a goal. Risk is not only a factor or featured element of management. It is the main character at play. Risk-based management gives importance to objectives. Failing to mitigate the risk means failure to meet the objective/s.


Each chapter is an open-minded appraisal of risk, its concept, its approaches, its visual, basis, assumptions, methodologies, tools, and applications. Risk attributes were revisited and explained in a more vivid, flexible and friendly manner. I want to talk about risk and risk-based management with someone fresh from high school and one deep in the fields, yet coming to the same understanding because this book has bridged understanding. One must remember the idea of risk like a picture. If the book manages to accomplish that, then I consider the book a success.


My second book, “How to Create a Good Quality P50 Risk-based Baseline Schedule” took more than a year to complete. It was inspired by my utmost personal reverence of time. I understand that in any management endeavor, time is a precious commodity. Time must not be wasted! It is so valuable that it is only wise to use it with respect. Individuals and organizations can plan all they want but the schedule becomes the focal point comes execution. It is impossible to accomplish all activities on time if the schedule is poorly developed.



While a bad schedule will most likely fail, a good schedule will succeed. As a project management professional, I was compelled to propose a solution, the P50 baseline schedule! The quality of the schedule translates easily to the end quality and cost of the project. A project manager is foolish to expect a timely delivery of a bad schedule. A bad schedule will result in budget overruns, and poor quality facilities, products/services. A poorly prepared schedule will not stay to expectation. This is the truth. It is not theoretical because it has been proven. It is a practical approach. Competing probabilities are bad for the project. There is a need to improve control, attainable only through a fully integrated project portfolio. A high probability activity depending on low probability predecessors will almost certainly be delayed. The delay will have a cascade effect of perhaps delaying the next tasks. There is a big possibility of overall delay because of varying degree of probability among activities.


Identifying the P50 of each activity and aligning them is one solution. Enhancing success is possible by creating a sound, and achievable P50 Risk-based baseline schedule. While in the past, identifying the right dates and duration to increase achievability is just a wish, this time it is different! I am giving you the solution to convert all project activities to a P50. You now have the ability to create a baseline schedule with activities with whatever probability value desired other than P50; e.g. P60, P70, P80, or P90. Make your call now and try it!


My third book, “Plan to Schedule, Schedule to Plan” demonstrates the husband and wife syllogism of planning and scheduling. It is an ideal and fundamental point of view of interdependence. Planning and scheduling are from a single fabric. They are very much connected. We plan to schedule, we schedule to plan. Nobody could deny or ignore this deep-rooted relationship (Frago, P50 Risk-based Baseline Schedule, 2014).



Every time someone talks about a plan, he will have to talk about the schedule, for what is a plan without thinking about the schedule? The plan is the schedule’s shadow and vice versa. There is no going around it if one is serious about his objectives. It is like Mutt and Jeff, Batman and Robin, one and zero, plus and minus, where each one provides better appreciation of the other.


The concept applies to all aspects of life’s undertakings. It is difficult not to frown when anyone say, “Focus on planning. Forget about scheduling. All you need is to be a good planner.” The Manager who will declare this motherhood statement does not know his left foot from his right. He will bring his clients and stakeholders into deep trouble.


Say your water heater at home has just crossed its twelve-year usage. You and your wife reflected on it, studied your budget and after looking at the equipment maintenance history, concluded that it needs replacement. After looking up how much it cost, both of you agreed to replace it next year. In the meantime, you also plan to save enough money pay for the equipment and its installation.


The question of timing follows right away in cascading level of details to answer the question when. From the plan, the purchase and installation can be set for August next year. It can be the first Monday of August next year, or August 10 (10 am to 12 pm) next year. A scheduled monthly saving of CAD 200 must be put in place such that the amount by August next year is more than enough to pay for the water heater installation cost. You now have a plan and a schedule. Just imagine planning something without a schedule to execute. Is it not an exercise in futility? Attaining an objective becomes improbable if not impossible.



Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis (Traditional Method)”, my fourth book instalment, is a process of calculating the overall probability or chance of completing a project on time and on budget. This was two years in the making.


Quantification uses various approaches and methods. Duration ranging is the most popular one, and often referred to as the “traditional method” of schedule risk analysis. It is simple and easy to understand.


New and upcoming project managers, leaders, planners and schedulers would love to wrap their heads around this special risk-based knowledge area and will enjoy reading this book. It is because one forgets that management tools only facilitate the route and provide the quick indicators. The analysis resides mainly under the responsibility of a qualified risk-based project management practitioner like you are. There’s no claim whatsoever that the tool will do or can do everything upon command.


Knowledge of the process and understanding of the reference benchmarks employed and how they were formulated are very important in addition to being tool-savvy.The tool is a vehicle to get you where you need to be, quicker and more accurate. One must use the tool to the “tool’s right” for the project to succeed, to set it up properly for speedy and correct turnarounds less those manual errors. It was observed that some will pretend to know the quantitative tool and the processes involved, to the detriment of the company they worked in.


There were some who slice and dice things that they really have no clear idea about. It’s time for all practitioners to sharpen the saw, to know exactly what needs to be done, why they are doing what they are doing, and finally for the more qualified persons to perform what’s rightfully their area, the expertise that of schedule quantitative risk assessment. Intellectual deceit and incompetence are not good. They are also bad combination. Ignorance is inexcusable and has to be treated with dedicated learning.


As such, I promised myself about three years ago that I will write a book on traditional SQRA. I have done it the shortest and simplest way so everyone can understand. Through this book, you can learn at your own pace. Each Lesson uncovers certain aspect of risk analysis. It discusses fundamental knowledge in the tool (OPRA) and related risk-based processes. I want the readers to confidently embark on schedule quantitative risk analysis without apprehension, with the absence of doubt and anxiety because it is done properly. They are doing it right! Traditional method of quantification is also called the three-point estimating method by many risk management practitioners. It looks at risk events and estimate uncertainties using three values of a given quantity such as duration, quantity, and cost.


Traditional method is applicable to cost risk analysis. It is excellent in capturing time-bound cost elements. The skills needed to perform SQRA has eluded many even as they try to learn how to effectively utilize the tool. Relying on bits and pieces of information without understanding the quantitative process is a major sticking point. It is my intention to address them, giving you, the readers, full understanding of the subject. Isn’t that what you want? Of course you do!


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Rufran C. Frago, Author


PM Solution Pro-We are part of the solution!


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