AACE Calgary Technical Meeting: AACE Methods of Dealing with Escalation

AACE Methods of Dealing with Escalation (Inflation)

SYNOPSIS:

For many of us, most of our adult lives we have been told of a mythical beast called inflation. A beast they say, but one central banks have kept in its target cage of 2%. Inside that cage, the beast looks almost benign. It is. Until it gets out. Then it has a life of its own.

As Project folks, we have tools in our tool kit to deal with escalation (that is inflation on capital projects) but with typical disuse, our tools grow rusty.

Matthew's talk will give us the refresher course we need now that we are once again in a materially significant, upwards of 30%, period of project cost escalation. In this talk, he will cover:

1. Project cost uncertainty - contingency vs escalation vs foreign exchange. How they differ and how we manage them differently;
2. AACEi methods of calculating escalation, from simple 2% all the way to Monte Carlo simulations;
3. Assuming we estimating escalation correctly, how do we move money from this fund to actual project line items; and
4. Related topics on inflation such as interest rates, interest during construction, and foreign exchange.

Speaker:

Matthew Schoenhardt
Risk Manager at Hatch

Matthew has over 25 years of project experience covering a broad range of industries including manufacturing, heavy industry, food processing, utilities, and infrastructure with a particular focus on the oil and gas industry. A big-picture thinker with an intrinsic desire for logical, efficient processes, Matthew approaches projects from a business perspective with a clear understanding of the profit motive.

With the mantra “predictability is better than perfection” Matthew has streamlined processes and developed coherent stage-gate processes. His natural affinity for numbers has allowed the creation of world-class project economic models.

In these, Matthew’s curiosity naturally led to a desire for better uncertainty, risk, and contingency assessments. After completing over $100B of assessments on hundreds of projects, Matthew is familiar with all methods of risk management. As an expert in the field, Matthew is one of the world’s foremost practitioners of the parametric/systemic approach and published several papers on capital project risk management. Despite his logical quantitative bent, Matthew is both effusive and engaging in demeanour and was ranked as the #1 overall speaker at AACE 2016.

Location:

Hatch Calgary Office
801 6th Street SW “Western Canada Place” (old Huskey building)
Calgary, AB
3rd floor conference hall

Date/Time:
Wed, Apr 26, 2023, 5:30 PM – 8:00 PM MDT

Cost:
Member: $25 / Non-Member: $30

Please be noted that as this is a new location so only light snacks and drinks will be provided.