(PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT) 127R-23: Choosing Among Strategic Alternatives Using Risk Analysis Concepts in Decision Modelling

With the evaluation of the risks for this model is there any evaluation of the costs as the result of a risk realization. In particular in utilizing a new technology there will be a need to maintain technical staff as support. 

How will these extra costs be discussed and evaluated by management in the assessment of this model?

In the discussions of strategic decisions there should be some discussion that these strategic decisions need to be considered throughout the asset's (the result of the project) for its life cycle. This is discussed in page 17 of GAO-20-48G "Operational time
periods vary, depending on the maturity of the products and their average
useful life. The life of a product is determined by its use and by its
materials. Buildings, such as nuclear containment facilities may have a
30-year life. Military equipment is routinely projected to have a 15-30 year
life-cycle. Systems designed for scientific investigation may have lifecycles that run from 5-15 years." [Note, although the examples listed here are from the U.S. Government the equivalent applies equally strongly to the private sector.

This is discussed in two sections of this Draft RP which needs to be revised to mention life cycle analyses.

[see pages 3 through 4 of 17. Language needs to be added, such that it is clearly understood that the strategic analysis of this project will evaluate the life cycle costs of the asset (created by the project) combined with the asset's operations costs, routine maintenance as well as deactivation, decontamination and demolition,

[See page 16 of 17 lines 480 through 484] 

"Senior leaders will be very satisfied in the development and implementation of a decision assessment model of strategic policies and an analysis of alternatives (AOA) in collaboration to reach a joint decision of parameters based on focused discussions. The repeatability and transparency of the methods add to the credibility of the results. This sophisticated modelling is neither difficult nor unknown. "

This section, should mention that the AoA as well as other strategic analyses mentioned here need to be taken with a life cycle cost analysis.  hat is a view not limited to the project cost but that of the asset (created by the project) combined with the asset's operations costs, routine maintenance as well as deactivation, decontamination and demolition,

This RP draft lacks the necessary role of subject matter experts, who are required to be a part of the review team.

As discussed in GAO-20-48G [page 26]

"Reviewing assessments by subject matter experts in both technology
development and readiness, and business leaders to ensure both
accuracy of the assessment and adequate progression of the
technology,"  

Ultimately the role of subject matter experts who have knowledge of the technologies evaluated in this strategic analysis.

As a minimum page 3 of 17 [lines 97 through 100:

"People involved in the strategic decision making for this analysis are different from the typical project management team that carries out execution. They are in the organization’s leadership positions with decision-making responsibility. They decide on a project strategy that will guide key decisions to be made later and may be turned into a detailed plan with a cost estimate."

Should be revised to include the evaluation and judgement of subject matter experts, in particular those with a strong understanding of the technologies being evaluated need to be part of these analyses.