http://www.compassinternational.net/our-newsletter/
Compass International's Global Construction Newsletter: January to March 1st Q – 2026
Executive Summary:
The global construction market is projected to experience another positive year of growth in 2026 if the current conflict in Europe can be resolved in the next 3 months. The Global Construction industry is projected to grow slightly in the range of 0.5% to 3.5%, not that great but still moving in a positive direction. This growth will be propelled by Infrastructure projects, AI related data centers, Oil / Gas grassroots & add-on facilities, while Institutional, Private Housing & Commercial type construction will for the most part decline slightly.
The Global Construction industry is set to embark on an amazing expansion in the next 15 years growing from $11 trillion today to a possible $20 trillion market, a 75% increase, assuming of course that no major conflicts or geopolitical event arises.
1st Q of 2026 Construction Outlook for the 12 # Major Countries:
|
Rank
|
Country
|
2026 GDP $ Trillions
|
Latest 2026 GDP growth %
|
% of GDP related to Construction
|
Construction Inflation & Unemployed
|
Comments
|
|
1
|
USA
|
31.3
|
2.7%
|
9% - 11%
|
2.8% & 3.9%
|
The future outlook for the US construction sector in the next 2 or 3 quarters appears promising, there are a couple of headwinds such as shortages of skilled workers, the impact of US tariffs & ongoing regional conflicts in Europe & the Middle-East. The US GDP is forecast to increase by 2.7% in 2026, which is reasonable compare with other G7 economies. The US construction has a long-term problem, an aging workforce, that is retiring at the rate of 5,000 to 10,000 a week, is not sustainable, add to this the removal of undocumented Mexican & Central American workers sets the stage for a perfect storm, perhaps a year or two from now. In addition, construction professionals such as Estimators, QS's, Planners etc. are also leaving the industry, add A1 into the mix & we could see a lot of problems down the road.
The AI expansion is here, just d how big will AI be? The data / call center construction sector is experiencing substantial growth fueled by AI, advance micro-chip production and technology companies. The US Government has announced that a 100% tariff will be imposed on all on imported drugs / pharmaceutical products from October 1st 2025, this is good news for the US construction industry, that will create lots of opportunities.
|
|
2
|
CHINA
|
19.9
|
4.1%
|
11% - 15%
|
0.7% & 5.7%
|
Latest indications are emerging that China's economy & construction sector are experiencing a serious slowdown. The Chinese Government contributed to this problem by providing low-cost loans that sparked an oversupply of new homes & office facilities. Construction expenditures are expected to remain subdued for the next 12 months. Relations with its neighbors & USA are very strained. The halcyon days of 6% &7% GDP growth appear to be gone.
|
|
3
|
INDIA
|
5.9
|
7.1%
|
12% - 16%
|
3.5% & 6.8%
|
The Indian Government is pumping billion of Rupees into Infrastructure / Hi-Speed Rail and Power related projects, look for this to continue in 2026 and beyond. The Indian economy is one of the fastest growing out of the world's major countries. Assisted by government initiatives / investment programs, major Fortune 500 consumer goods investments. India's construction industry is forecast to experience dynamic growth in the next 12 months. India has overtaken China in as the world's most populated country in 2025, with a population of 1.45 billion. The military standoff between India and China in the northern Himalayan region is tenuous and threatening, with troops positioned in close proximity to each other, both countries are claiming sovereignty of the disputed border area.
India and China are serious rivals, this border issue could turn out to be a "ticking timebomb" now and in the future.
|
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John McConville
Operations Director
Lake County FL
mcconvil@rcn.com------------------------------