How to Visualize Risk

By Rufran C Frago posted 12-05-2020 09:42 PM


Mark is boarding a plane and heard one passenger in front remarked in jest that the chance of the aircraft reaching its destination is 50%. It is just a joke to that person but not to him because he is a serious risk practitioner. The statement demonstrates the probability component of risk.

Probability is the certainty or uncertainty of something happening. Since risk is widely known to be the effect of uncertainty on an objective, the objective of reaching the destination is only 50% certain. Another way of looking at it is by saying it is 50% uncertain.

What can be some of the possible consequences a passenger might be thinking? A new passenger might be anxious and entertain the thought of the plane crashing.

A less experienced passenger might entertain the thought that the plane might be diverted to another place due to some emergency or threat.

A more experienced passenger might say that no real risk is present and that the plane will reach the destination on time.

An observer's perspective depends mainly on the specific risk identified, plus his knowledge and experience on the subject.

RUFRAN C. FRAGO, PMP, P. ENG. , PMI-RMP, CCP, Author (120320)

About the Author

Rufran C. Frago is the Founder of PM Solution Pro, a Calgary consultingproduct, and training services firm focusing on project and business management solutions. He is passionate providing advice, mentorship, education and training through consultation, collaboration, and what he uniquely calls, student-led training.


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