Robert Wells is a seasoned professional with over 35 years of experience across contracting and engineering, including roles as estimator, project manager, and risk analyst, specializing in electrical and instrumentation cost estimating worldwide. This presentation examines the rise and revision of AACE RP 41R-08, what was flawed in range estimating, and its lasting impact on practices like Monte Carlo modeling. It also highlights key distinctions between risk, contingency, accuracy, and cause-effect, while contrasting traditional range estimating with approaches based on correlation and orthogonality.

Capital cost is not assumed — it is inferred from two orthogonal drivers: the risk exposure ratio (ρ) and the performance efficiency potential (Ω), including a project-level Alignment Efficiency Index cos(α). The result is a closed-form expression for capital capacity  X = 2.ρ.Ω that becomes measurable from live financial behavior. This allows budgets to be dynamically recalibrated as the project evolves — not after damage occurs — enabling predictive control, not post-mortem accounting. In effect, this work converts risk from an administrative spreadsheet concept into a measurable engineering dynamic state variable.

Percy Coca is an Electrical Engineer with PMP® and PMI-RMP® certifications, specializing in high-impact projects across Oil & Gas, mining, infrastructure, and construction. This presentation focuses on quantitative risk analysis and contingency planning to enable data-driven decisions and realistic budgets. It highlights the application of RP 66-11 and RP 118-21, supported by complementary recommended practices for consistent and defensible risk analysis.

Please join us on Dec 110, 2025, from 10:00 to 11:00 AM EST, as Dave Kyle, the CEO of CEOptimize Consulting Ltd, will present “False Estimate Accuracy”. We look forward to seeing you there!

Please join us on Nov 20, 2025, from 10:00 to 11:00 AM EST, as Dr. Moe Roghabadi and Sohiel Hassan will present “Simulation-Based Risk Allocation in Collaborative-Based Projects”. We look forward to seeing you there!

Please join us on October 23, 2025, from 10:00 to 11:00 AM EST, as John Hollmann presents “Tail Risk: Three Proposed DRM RPs to Help Tackle the Major Project Overrun Problem ”  We look forward to seeing you there!

Registration Link:

https://rb.gy/jsqtwg

Please join us on June 27, 2025, from 10:00 to 11:00 AM EST, as Dr. David Hulett presents “Schedule/Cost Risk Analysis: It’s Not Just Pushing Software Buttons.”  We look forward to seeing you there!

Registration Link: