How to Visualize Risk Probability

By Rufran C Frago posted 12-07-2020 09:44 PM


Probability is a measure of uncertainty of risk consequence. If the impact is zero, then the logical consideration is gone. There is no risk because it will not happen. 

If the probability is above zero, then the consequence might happen—the greater the possibility, the greater the chance of the subject consequence from happening.

One way to visualize risks is to look at the picture of a situation or the situation itself. Hold it in front of you and imagine that you are there. If you are in there, ask yourself why? What is your purpose for being there? Are you there on behalf of an enterprise? Are you there to help or to document what is happening?

What are the boundaries dictating your actions? What can you give? Are you a neutral observer whose interest is for the general good? Figure 6 shows portions of a flooded metropolitan. What do you see? What is it to you?

If you are on a sturdy boat taking this picture, the possibility is little that you will consequently end up in the water. In any case, that is still a risk you might want to consider. Some people are in dirty floodwater conjure up the chances of diseases eventually contracted by them. You can calculate that such a probability is high.

Thinking about risk in terms of probability should be easy enough if you think about the consequence within the framework of your objectives or the objectives of the entity you represent.

RUFRAN C. FRAGO, PMP, P. ENG. , PMI-RMP, CCP, Author (120520)

About the Author

Rufran C. Frago is the Founder of PM Solution Pro, a Calgary consultingproduct, and training services firm focusing on project and business management solutions. He is passionate providing advice, mentorship, education and training through consultation, collaboration, and what he uniquely calls, student-led training.


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