Good Day Adam,
For forecast validation I would use To Complete Performance Index (TCPI). There are many technical paper on the value (or lack of) to the TPCI, but it is a good indicator of the realism in the ETC/EAC. Every month you can validate how real the forecast is based on the performance to date. PMI defines TPCI as a measure of the cost performance that is required to be achieved with the remaining resources in order to meet a specified management goal, expressed as the ratio of the cost to finish the outstanding work to the remaining budget. MPE and MAPE (MAPD) are economic calculations using regression models. I don't know if that is what you are looking for?
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Michael Marcell EVP PSP
Vice President
K2 Consulting
Bethesda MD
(240) 876-4833
mmarcell@k2consulting.com------------------------------
Original Message:
Sent: 06-18-2024 06:41 AM
From: Adam Lavan
Subject: Forecast Accuracy
Hi All,
Does anyone have a best practice for how they report on the accuracy of their forecasts over time. I am looking for a forecast accuracy indicator as a whole, one for the past 6 months and one for the past 3 months - probably a formula that you can choose the amount of months you want to go back. I have seen MPE and MAPE which look okay.
We produce forecasts every month as well so it would be good to take this into account as well (not just the latest).
Thanks
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Adam Lavan EVP
Project Controls Manager
Ripon, UK
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